Five political risks to watch in Thailand

ที่มา thaifreenews

http://www.thesundaily.com/article.cfm?id=39156 Five political risks to watch in Thailand Thai stocks and the baht tumbled this week on concerns about the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who has been in hospital for nearly four weeks. Following is a summary of key risks to watch in Thailand: * THE KING''S HEALTH The 81-year-old King Bhumibol has been in hospital since Sept. 19. Doctors say he is recovering from pneumonia. His illness has focused attention on what will happen when his reign comes to an end. A central issue in Thailand''s political conflict is what role the monarchy and unelected elites should have in running the country. Many "red shirts" blame officials close to the monarchy -- in particular Privy Councillor Prem Tinsulanonda -- for undermining former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and backing the 2006 coup. Bhumibol is widely respected by all sides in Thailand''s political conflict, so his political influence is accepted by Thais. But his son and presumed heir, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, does not yet command the same popular support as his father. Many Thais and political analysts fear that if the crown passes to Vajiralongkorn while Thailand''s political divisions remain unresolved this could encourage opposing factions to intensify their struggle, with highly destabilising consequences. Key issues to watch: -- Daily updates on the health of the king. If his health worsens, this would be negative for markets. And a troubled succession could have a major negative impact on stocks and the baht and raise the prospects of a sovereign downgrade. -- Extent to which Prem remains a focus of protests. Thailand''s strict lese majeste laws mean any discussion of the succession and the role of the monarchy is heavily curtailed. Partly for this reason, many "red shirts" have focused their protests on Prem, the most senior royal adviser. If Prem continues to be a flashpoint for protests, this is a sign the succession may be less smooth and orderly than many hope. * POLITICAL INSTABILITY Thailand remains bitterly polarised. A divisive political conflict, between royalists, urban elites and the military on one side, and mainly rural supporters of Thaksin on the other, shows no sign of ending. Since Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup, Thailand has gone through six heads of government and faced several disruptive showdowns, including a damaging siege of Bangkok''s airports late last year and the forced cancellation of an Asian summit. In 2002, the World Bank''s World Governance Indicators rated Thai political stability at 59.1 out of 100. By 2008, it had dived to 12.9. Key issues to watch: -- Upcoming flashpoints include a Bangkok rally by Thaksin''s supporters on Saturday, and the planned ASEAN and East Asian summit in Hua Hin from next Friday. The government is desperate to avoid a repeat of last April, when protests forced the abandonment of an Asian summit in Pattaya. -- Strength of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva''s coalition government. Abhisit''s coalition remains shaky and it is uncertain whether it could win a second term when elections are held. If Abhisit''s popular support increases, this would be broadly positive for Thai markets. But if pro-Thaksin parties look like returning to power, this would be market-negative because efforts by "yellow shirts" to topple it -- by any means -- would resume. * THE THREAT OF A COUP Thailand''s military and police have a congenital inability to keep out of politics -- the country has had 18 actual or attempted coups in 77 years of on-off democracy. Rumours continue to swirl about the loyalties of the most senior generals. Key issues to watch: -- Level of unrest and instability. A coup becomes much more likely if Thailand sees another bout of mass unrest on the streets. In these circumstances, a successful coup could boost markets in the short term, but the long-term impact on Thailand''s attractiveness for foreign investors would be negative. * CORRUPTION AND GOVERNANCE Thailand is widely perceived to have become more corrupt during the past five years of instability. The World Governance Indicators rating for control of corruption fell from 54.4 out of 100 in 2005 to 43.0 in 2008. Key issues to watch: -- Latest estimates of level of Thai corruption. Investors closely watch corruption perception indices from the World Governance Indicators project, Transparency International and others. Signs of a further worsening will not have a short-term impact on markets but will damage investment in the longer run. * THE SOUTHERN INSURGENCY The insurgency by separatist Muslims in Thailand''s southern provinces has become more bloody in recent years, but violence has been almost wholly confined to the south and so has had little impact on markets. That looks unlikely to change, but the conflict has the potential to become more worrying for investors. Key issues to watch: -- The danger of escalation. So far the insurgency remains a local, ethno-nationalist conflict. There is no sign that al Qaeda sympathisers have been able to gain any influence over the insurgency, or that militants have any intention of targeting foreign businesses or the crucial tourism industry. If that changes, Thai markets and the economy could be badly hit. -- Reuters